The seminar, Professor Zhang Weiying from the basic assumptions of economics rational and said that he went to, to tell you the post-industrial era, the information age, why the concept still has irrefutable force; swept the world of big data, why and become Bill Gates, Steve Jobs is still a step away.
February 28, 2015, the tenth day, spring snow, North Long Run Park. A heated debate is unfolding. Peking University National Institute of Development Research Center of Law and Economics, Information Society 50 Forum offer great coffee and the brightest in the field of economics of the information age conspiracy theory of economics development plans. For the traditional economics of the information age, is a scourge? Or another spring?
The seminar, Professor Zhang Weiying from the basic assumptions of economics rational and said that he went to, to tell you the post-industrial era, the information age, why the concept still has irrefutable force; swept the world of big data, why and become Bill Gates, Steve Jobs is still a step away. The following is a Professor Zhang Weiying speech.
Information so that the problem of economic theory highlights
Economic theory has many problems, but some problems still more serious, but whether these problems are the problems themselves, or because there is called information after the problems, I do not think very clearly. In our view, the problem itself, is not a problem to bring information, but the information itself may be exposed to these problems more obvious.
For example, as geocentric and heliocentric, geocentric could have been wrong, and not to the sixteenth century began to become wrong. But before the sixteenth century, in a very traditional agricultural society, the earth revolves around the sun, or the sun around the earth, does not make sense for most people. But times into the sailing, we believe that the earth revolves around the sun, or the sun around the earth, it becomes very important.
Rational choice model of economics assumes that people driven by the interests and know their own interests
Any science has two purposes, one is explained, is a prediction. Economics interpretation also relatively successful in predicting the mess. Why predict will become a mess? Economics predict all past, no matter how complex, there is a certain assumption that the rational choice model.
Rational choice model means that each person's actions are driven by interests. This fact, in one hundred years ago, British economist is very clear, economics every perpetrator is driven by interests. Also assume that everyone knows their interests, to maximize their own interests everyone, everyone's behavior can be explained from his point of view to maximize the benefits society as a whole can be understood as the interests of the game, even the game is different interest groups the results.
Interests, ideas and rational
If we assume that human behavior is dominated by the interests of the whole economics is useless, that is: no matter how economists say there is no relationship with people, how to conduct on how people act the whole economics is useless a.
But since ancient times, mankind since all thinkers, they deeply believe that human behavior is the subject of the concept of the guidelines. Cited passage, in two hundred years ago, talking about – Although people are dominated by the interests, but the interests of itself, that is, all things are governed by the concept.
Mises stresses liberalism, liberalism is not so complicated, liberalism is liberalism, we do not blame simplistic, simplification is not wrong, but the real world is too complex and too simple if it does not need science, (also on) do not need an economist. Liberalism genre, all genres have a common point of view – the concept is important. Each of us lives, every day is not a red wine, is not smoking, and cognition are concerned, we are talking about reform, including Deng Xiaoping reform, all of history is hard to explain it with the interests of the concepts.
The key question is why these ideas and concepts are important because it is simple -? We humans are the only rational animal on earth. What this means is rational? Means that we will be thinking, we will analyze, Director General purpose, we will be thinking, Why should I do it before acting. Everything we humans do, we need to prove its legitimacy – why?
Economics: From the instrumental rationality to value rationality
We talk about the idea, the concept, in fact, prove a cause of human actions of his own, a theorem. What is called rational? Suppose economics is instrumental rationality, reason is just one way to achieve the purpose of it, just a bunch of irrational desire slaves, I have a purpose, reason tells you what to eat is the best.
Adam Smith from the beginning has been to Kant, they speak of rationality is one purpose – that human beings should pursue, and what should not pursue. A person with a rational desire to rule, he is a rational person, it is difficult, everyone has emotions. A person often in a passion, in a impulsive behavior, without thought, so that he is not rational. This is important, you may want to change the economics of our so-called instrumental rationality hypothesis, to the value of rational or objective reason, which is very important.
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Post-industrial society, non-material benefits will be even more important
Interests of people is through the concept, the idea to know what is in our interest and what does not in our interest, (depending on) what kind of ideas. Not just the interests of their own material interests, economists explain the material interests, (because) of the material interests of long-term human time is the most important thing; the other reason is because material interests, easy to quantify.
We humans to a post-industrial society, non-material interests will become more important. Material benefit to a certain extent, the scarcity has been resolved; therefore social and information society, post-industrial non-material interests become more important.
Intangible benefits are more dependent on the individual – you want to have the honor, a good reputation, this is for you. There is no good reputation, your legitimate improper behavior, if there are legitimate good reputation; what do you think legitimate, public, fair and poor to the rich things out right now is not considered a legitimate legitimate?? Now speaking rights. There is also a selectable something? Feasibility of space in your mind, what means you have ideas, including dealing with the financial crisis, and so we are concerned with this.
Understanding of the world of the future, not based on past data can be obtained
Furthermore, the reason why the concept is more important, deeper reason is because our world is very limited, very imperfect, our understanding of the world, to understand the future, not based on past data can be obtained, and the world too complicated. We have a vision of the world might is right, there may be wrong. If it is right, without any idea, according to the original acts on it.
Economists predicted the Great Depression did, Latin America debt crisis, the financial crisis did not predict that the Mexican financial crisis did not predict that the Asian financial crisis did not predict that the collapse of the Soviet Union did not anticipate. Revolution itself did not predict that, if it is impossible to predict the occurrence of revolution.
What is the reason? This stability and change, depending on what kind of ideas, these ideas themselves, but also to the development of our people, to deal with uncertainty.
Entrepreneurs have the ability to cope with uncertainty
Economists predict the future is not successful, but the entrepreneur, why? Entrepreneurs have the ability to cope with uncertainty. The greatest success of all entrepreneurs, not make judgments based on future past data, such as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Ma micro-channel, five years ago, no data can predict the micro-channel, and we are very enthusiastic about big data, big data changing the way we work to reform our work to reform our thinking, which is a good thing for economists. Good point, big data is impossible, there is always uncertainty.
Anyone in big data (efforts) will not become Bill Gates, Steve Jobs will not become, they are not saying do not use these things very useful. I just talked about entrepreneurs facing no one sees something not predicted 30 years ago to today's mobile phones, the Internet today. 30 years later what is the greatest industry, no one can predict.
Some things can happen, but when it happens, we do not know.
We consistently care
Ideals and desire
NFC Near Field Communication technology in Western developed countries have not been large-scale applications, the new wireless communications technology and constantly emerging, mobile payment security, more and more people's attention, to catch the popularity of mobile internet banking terminal, it seems the traditional The increasing pressure of financial institutions.
Suffering and mutual Killing
Strong and weak person
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